Apple announcement is like Christmas Eve – at least to me.

I must admit — I get all geared up for Apple announcements. Many of you who know me personally understand why — to the others of you reading this for the first time, it’s personal.

Regardless, as I was talking with my good friend Scott Newman tonight, it came upon me that the iPhone 4 that I currently have in my hand and was using to talk with Scott is completely operational and yet – I was prepared to put it in a desk drawer and replace it with a new shiny model – all because Apple says I should.

It got me thinking.

What other “items” or “industry” has this type of control over the general public?

Seth told me “Video Games” and that makes some sense.

Laptops — very few people update their laptop without having a problem with a previous version.

Televisions – most people only buy TV’s when their old one is giving them problems or they want a flat one.

Cars – I guess some people do trade in their cars year over year – but that’s very costly and not a great “investment” – though I hardly think buying the latest iPhone is a worthwile “investment” @ $399.

Houses – no.

Groceries – not a commodity so doesn’t work in this example.

It’s unbelievable when you think about it. You have this perfectly decent phone you’ve been using for 8-12 months, Apple unveils a new one and you have to have it. So many in fact, people like me will wait upwards of 3 hours in line at the Apple store to get it. It’s absolutely assinine to think about.

Kudos to the marketing genius at Apple for pulling this off. It’s definitely up there with Zynga convincing people to buy fake broccoli for their digital farms.

Regardless — I’ll be in line. Will you?

Tags: Apple, Cell Phone, iPhone

New Company Details!

Hey Everyone –

Excited to let you in on a whole bunch of new stuff that we’ve been working on. As you may know, Scott Philp and I have been flying stealth for the past couple of months as we teamed up to roll-out our new company: “Wedge Buster”.

Wedge Buster is a new sports / social gaming platform that we are very excited about and despite our “flying stealth” status – has garnered a lot of attention.

We recently teamed up with Turner / Sports Illustrated and launched a fantasy football application on Facebook. We positioned the product as a very light weight, easy-to-play, casual fantasy football commissioner experience.

Install the app and if you find some time, I’d love to get your feedback on what our amazing team has put together:

http://apps.facebook.com/sifantasyfootball/?kt_type=ad&kt_st1=mail&kt_st2=2

I look forward to catching up with each of you in the not-so-distant future and seeing if we can find ways to work together.

Stay tuned – we have big announcements coming soon!

RH

Cloud 9 – Sold

Many of you kept asking me what “Cloud 9″ was – quite simply my own little company that I funneled my sports memorabilia investment / business dealings through. While it originally intended to be something different, it became this makeshift “tax evader” based on timing and such and good advice from a guy I respect a lot on how these royalties, etc. should get funneled into my personal accounts, etc. Lots of legal mumbo jumbo stuff.

Regardless — this week I officially sold my “SignedDeals.com” project. What originally started out as a project out of complete and utter boredom, and had a shelf life of little over 2 weeks, was rather viable in a space that is all the buzz about Groupon-like destinations.

It was a lot of fun, and the one thing I learned is – it’s a lot more work then you think.

Other parts of my professional career starting deterring my interest and I was not spending enough time focusing on it – so it was time to see what it was “worth”.

Much to my surprise – the interest was pretty heavy and a lot of people liked with Seth and I had built in our little niche of the daily deals world.

I think even more people liked the domain – but, be it as it may – an exit became viable and extremely gratifying this past week.

I tell you this, only with the attempt to explain that even the most trivial idea is valuable. Execution and marketing will always slow you down – but if you really want to make something work – you can do it.

Seth and I knew nothing about this type of space, we basically played around, learned a lot, wasted some money on various open source software platforms that neither of us knew how to code – but at the end it didn’t matter.

I think many of us get more excited about the “chase”. I define that point where you execute on your idea and you are “chasing” your vision — the most powerful time. You are watching your idea unfold before your eyes and it’s literally an amazing time for any Entrepreneur.

The problem most of us have is the “post-chase.” Watching it unfold was so amazing – you want to go through that process again, despite the fact you now have to execute and run the first idea you started.

Don’t get caught up that because it’s so incredibly exhausting and frustrating — you’ll disappoint yourself.

I think that happened to me a bit here with this one. I loved watching it unfold — hated managing it. Was fun – had a hard time figuring out how I was going to grow it. Plenty of ideas – lots of discussions – at the end – way better in someone else’s hands who wants to execute on the idea.

I got lucky — but the morale of the story is this:

Always try. Give it a shot, you never know what’s going to happen. You’ll win some and loose some but in the end – there is nothing more gratifying then the “chase”.
I’d rather be the guy who gave his idea a shot and failed then the guy who talks about his idea as if it’s great but will never know because he’s too afraid to try.

The Web is Dead!

A must read: http://digitalquarters.net/2011/06/the-web-is-shrinking-now-what/

Recent Ipsos Study

You have no idea how many emails I received asking me to respond to the recent Ipsos study regarding the growth of Fantasy Sports.

If you haven’t read it, the basic premise is that on the proportion of survey respondents who report having played fantasy sports in the past 12 months in the U.S. (12%) and in Canada (13%), the total projected number of fantasy sports players aged 12 and older is approximately 32 million. The number of fantasy players has increased over 60 percent from a 2007 Ipsos study that showed 19.4 million fantasy sports players. A 2010 study from Ipsos showed approximately 30.6 million people played in the U.S. and Canada.

I sat down to review the data today, on top of everything else I have going on in my life, and was preparing to write a long rhetorical type piece regarding my thoughts on this recent study.

For the record, I totally disagree with the data. It’s based solely on projections and the data they gather is based on a rather “small” sample size, in my opinion. I think if we got all the “big hitters” in a single room and had them analyze the space – and if they were being honest – they’d tell you a different story.

Be it as it may – one thing changed my mind.

I actually read Matthew Berry’s recent article called “You gotta have faith”. In it, Matthew Berry (someone I admire, respect and follow on a weekly basis) discusses how TMR was shaped by a few people that helped Matt get to where he is today. Knowing him the way I do, I know that’s accurate. I know he’s thankful for all those that helped. I know he’s a great guy who depended on A LOT of people to get where he is today. However, we can also thank Matthew for helping shape fantasy sports into what it is today.

So all of this had me thinking?

Sure, I don’t agree that the space is growing. I’ve been adamant that the data does not show growth in the fantasy space.

However, it offered me and guys like Matt, many wonderful years of doing what many of us call the “dream job”. This space game me everything that I own today.

Surely, I don’t want to be “that” guy who is always the naysayer of the fantasy sports landscape. Everyone is entitled to an opinion – and the amount of feedback, email, phone messages and hate mail I received after my most (not so recent post) had let people know enough about my thoughts.

Those that know me, those that are closest to me know my feelings and my thoughts. Those that disagree with me — great. Those that think I’m “bitter” – you’re wrong.

Every day I wake up and I get to play in a world that most males wish they could. I get to analyze what Drew Brees is going to do this season – and get paid to do that.

For that I’m thankful.

In regards to the fantasy sports landscape and my thoughts, I think I’ll take the title from Matt, and label it “You gotta have faith”.

Faith that the data is accurate.

Faith that you have passion and drive to achieve the success you seek in this tough industry.

Faith that I was bitter and my analysis was flawed. After all, that is what most of you think anyway.

Whatever it is — understand, this space has been great to me, my family and a lot of great people like Matt. I’m not going to continue to disrespect it and be the fantasy pessimist.

I stand by what I said, but I have faith that many of you can help turn it around.

Thanks Matthew.

RH

Constantly Edit Your Team!

Leadership Video

Found this interesting – wanted to share. Enjoy!

Fantasy Sports is Played Out!

If you take an honest look around the fantasy sports landscape, you will be left shaking your head and wondering the same thing I am: What’s wrong?

My mentor told me a couple years ago, “The big money has already been made in this business.”

I don’t need to bore you with stats and trends, and I really don’t care what overpriced studies say – the number of consumers is way down. The number of companies showing growth is down.  Companies are going out of business.  Major media companies are convinced they can’t win with sports, let alone fantasy sports. Everyone is looking for distribution.  This has become a fragile marketplace.

Don’t believe me?

Do your own simple research. You don’t need to have a ComScore account to track it – you can get a very good sense of the health of this industry by doing a simple search/comparison on Compete.com.

I first compared a few content sites that I visit frequently:  FootballGuys.com, RotoWire.com, and RotoWorld.com. The results were staggering – See chart below

** You must have over 5K unique visitors to be listed in any of the data points shown below.

So quick review:
FootballGuys: 60,269 Unique Visitors: Yearly Change (-4.31%)
RotoWire: 32,203 Unique Visitors: Yearly Change (-33.75%)
RotoWorld: 321,378 Unique Visitors: Yearly Change (-1.51%)

After looking at this — I kept digging. After all, the three sites above are highly regarded as three of my favorites in the fantasy sports marketplace.

FFToday: 25,530 Unique Visitors: Yearly Change (-23.67%)
TheHuddle: 17,883 Unique Visitors: Yearly Change (-24.59%)
FantasyFootballCafe: 7,180 Unique Visitors: Yearly Change (-56.36%)
FootballDieHards: 9,592 Unique Visitors: Yearly Change (-3.14%)
MockDraftCentral: 12,115 Unique Visitors: Yearly Change (-21.62%)

I then expanded my criteria to niche fantasy game providers.

MyFantasyLeague: 153,222 Unique Visitors: Yearly Change (-15.48%)
RTSports: 92,346 Unique Visitors: Yearly Change (+2.54%)
Fantrax: 15,534 Unique Visitors: Yearly Change (-1.26%)
Head2Head: 12,643 Unique Visitors: Yearly Change (-28.64%)
RapidDraft: 5,677 Unique Visitors: Yearly Change (-1.22%)

I decided that wasn’t enough of a sample size – and expanded to fantasy baseball websites:

BaseballHQ: 6,235 Unique Visitors: Yearly Change (-44.30%)
BaseballProspectus: 38,133 Unique Visitors: Yearly Change (-31.66%)

Okay — I think we have enough data points to prove a point. However, let me first say that I have no proof that these numbers are accurate. I’m simply using Compete.com to provide the data. I know it’s not 100% accurate, but I’d bet if I put the same companies into ComScore – the same chapter to this story would be written.

I guess I’d be amiss if I didn’t point out the number of companies who have closed, shutdown, etc.  Hell, that is what basically gave me the time to do this quick study.

Fanball.com – Been in business since 1993. Approx. 95K unique visitors. Status: CLOSED
AOL Fanhouse – Recently “sold” all of its inventory to SportingNews. At it’s height – AOL’s sports property had over 5M uniques. Still, AOL decided they could not win in sports.
Sporting News – Announced that they would no longer offer fantasy sports games in 2010.
OpenSports – Raised millions of dollars – never got traction despite distribution outlet with Fox Sports.

Despite lots of money, a national radio audience, massive bookstore distribution, staggering numbers of users, and longevity – they could not survive.

Think about it.

Before I continue to paint a doom & gloom scenario, let’s give credit where credit is due — there are a few content sites who have really shown growth in these difficult times:

FFToolBox.com: 144,602 Unique Visitors: Yearly Change (+2.43%)
FantasyFootball.com: 24,536 Unique Visitors: Yearly Change (+3.31%)
FantasySharks.com: 35,431 Unique Visitors: Yearly Change (+14.32%)
KFFL.com: 96,106 Unique Visitors: Yearly Change (+28.95%)
FantasyGuru.com: 18,489 Unique Visitors: Yearly Change (+10.42%)

So what is my hypothesis based on this less then ideal data structure?

Basically, the premium content companies are getting slaughtered (and that’s putting it nicely).  I had a conversation that sparked this research with one of my buddies and his observation was, “there are simply less people playing fantasy sports.”  I tend to agree. The plethora of free fantasy sports information is stunning.  Years ago a user would pay to get “insider” data, a draft kit and a magazine or two.  These days, a novice user can walk into a draft with a draft tool, an iPhone application filled with draft rankings, tons of cheatsheets compiled in whatever scoring format he/she chooses and numerous other pieces of information – all for free!

I also believe that news/content sites are getting crushed by Twitter.  No disrespect to anyone, but I used to visit MLBTradeRumors.com on a daily basis. Now I just rely on my Twitter aggregation feed to tell me the latest in the world of sports/fantasy sports. It breaks there and on my hand held device faster then any site can write it up. I don’t need to visit the web any longer to get that critical data. Sorry Tim. You do an amazing job at MLBTR.

What was once considered a thriving business sector has become frail, stagnated and tepid.  And I’m being “nice” using those words.   Personally, I believe better adjectives to define fantasy sports companies are; lifeless, sterile and annoying.

If you take an honest look around the space, what you will see is a continued lack of innovation.  Seriously, when was the last time you saw something “fresh”?  Most of what you see is a slightly modified version of the original by another company who wants to take away some market share. This simply doesn’t work.

Listen, you can’t win re-creating the wheel.

Most of the time, a fresh, new, innovative idea that has distribution and can create it’s own market share will win.  Be the first mover on something fresh and new. It’s not about what new bells & whistles you have included in the product. It’s not about beating them on prize payout percentage. All you are doing is setting up everyone else to fail.

Perfect example of this — the daily fantasy games space.

A couple companies roll out a game that features daily contests.  Games are somewhat successful, easy to play, engaging – they become a hot commodity.  Next thing you know – there is upwards of 15 companies now offering the same game.  What did they do differently? Basically nothing. They added some “factors”, “bells & whistles” and “upgraded graphics.”  They may have changed some game mechanics but basically they were all the same.  So what happens?  The guys that got out early are maintaining their market share despite the new entries into the space, so the rookies have to get desperate. So what do they do?  Raise their prize payouts.  So now you have 15+ companies all competing against each other for prize payout when the margins in this game are too slim to begin with.  I’ve seen payouts as high as 94%.  Listen to me — I don’t care what anyone says — you are NOT making any money on a 6% rake.  You aren’t making any money on a 10% rake. You THINK you are — but you aren’t and you will not be successful long-term. You have to cover server costs, credit card processing fees, staffing fees.  You are not going to win by offering the lowest “rake”.  You simply can’t scale big enough.  It will take MILLIONS of eyeballs and you can’t get there. You don’t have four letters in your domain and you have no massive distribution point – i.e. television.

The other key problem is a lack of distribution outlets.

The big boys probably aren’t interested in helping you figure out a way to get rich. Let’s be honest. It’s not like you can walk into ESPN and say, “Hey, my game is really cool. It would REALLY help ESPN from a marketing and engagement standpoint. Just think about it — my game would help you guys bring customers back every day that you can sell ads to.” Dude – they don’t need you for engagement or your idea.  Pay them LOTS of money — you might get them to put the game on the site. Even then — hold your breath. It won’t be pretty, odds are it won’t be successful and your board will be really upset that you made a dumb decision.

The fact remains, you can’t market a pay-to-play content portal or fantasy game on a free-to-play outlet. Your cost per customer acquisition will be way too high to translate into worthwhile results and aside from a branding exercise – I’m not sure what you will get out of it.  I guess good PR – but that’s only worth what you are able to leverage out of it.

Don’t even get me started on the High Stakes fantasy space – that’s an entirely different discussion.

I have a few distinct conclusions based on all of this:

1. I can foresee a day (rather quickly) when ESPN, NBC, YAHOO, NFL and MLB all own even more dominant positions in the the industry, and it’s too difficult to compete with them.   Small “mom & pops” with considerable upside will be non-existent.

2. Nobody is investing in fantasy sports.  The first question that all savvy investors want to know is “can it scale?”  Fantasy doesn’t scale. It’s a declining marketplace and if you are going to invest big money in the space, you want something that has a chance of huge returns.  Fantasy does not have that.

3. I’m not going to say you can’t make a living in this space. Plenty of you reading this make a solid living doing what you want to do. That’s exceptional. Don’t let this take away from that.  In fact, if you are happy doing what you love – there is A LOT to be said about that.

4. Sell, Sell, Sell.  If somebody sniffs at your business and offers you something that will allow you to be comfortable for quite a few years, you should do it. Don’t think twice – get out.  Take your exit and move on.  Some of the smartest people in our industry got out a few years back and have lots of money to keep them comfortable for a long time. I’m doubtful you will see that again in this space so take any advantage you have now for a quick exit.

5. Our industry is at a cross-roads. We all love and appreciate the opportunity to live the “fantasy dream.”  However, it’s really time to go back to the drawing board and ask yourself “What’s Next?”…before it’s too late.

Lastly, I don’t want everything above to be construed as me being negative based on my most recent departure from Fanball.  Certainly I have had some time to reflect and now it’s time to move on.  What I wanted to do was reflect on the state of the industry in a very high-level way.  It’s not exact science and some of the numbers above may be way off internal analytics at some companies.

Let me reiterate, I know all the numbers above are not 100% accurate.  In no way am I suggesting that I based my thoughts on these numbers. They only provided framework to what I have been sensing for some time.  They certainly are thought provoking and insightful, but I know that all of these “open source” analytic systems have flaws.  So keep that in mind.

It doesn’t change my mind.

After all, everyone is entitled to their own opinion.

MBA

So just to start, I’ve always, since I was a little kid, have had this infatuation with Harvard. The idea of attending school there, the campus, the history, the prestige, etc. No, I’m not just saying this because I saw the “Social Network”.  I actually wore the Harvard pullover when I was 9 years old living in little ol’ Santa Maria, California. I remember telling my parents I’d go there some day — actually asked them if this was all accurate right before I wrote this bit.

Not sure why. I’ve never visited. Never really understood my infatuation.  To this day – not sure I’ve ever been on their website for more than a quick second.

So why do I still yearn for this?

To really get a sense of why I had to take a painful journey back to my childhood.  Much to the dismay of myself and pretty much my entire family – I never “lived up to the expectations” in high school.  To be perfectly blunt — I was an absolute heathen.  I could care less for pretty much everything, despite having a 4.0 GPA as a freshman.  Was I a smart kit? Probably not the smartest.  However, it’s really not about that – it’s about working the system.  That my friends, I learned to master a LONG time ago.

So think about it. Despite attending high school about 40% of the time (as a Junior / Senior), I was able to graduate with an embarrassing 1.97 accumulative GPA (yes, that includes my 4.o freshman year).  I was that kid that sat in the bleachers waiting on some group of higher education executives to make a decision on my status for graduation festivities. Was I going to be able to walk with my graduating class?  Was I going to be able to go to gradnite?  Were my parents going to be disappointed? Listen, they were so severely disappointed with me at this point – the idea of caring about me walking at graduation and ever receiving a diploma was such an afterthought, it really never became an issue.  And to be honest, I remember sitting up in the bleachers, watching the people who I had attended school with for upwards of 13 years and thinking “does it really matter”!

So what changed?

It really came down to a few factors.

1. Rebellion:  Honestly, I knew nothing about the military. All I knew is I wanted to get the hell out of my parents house and this sounded a lot better than any college. My parents weren’t going to send me, or pay for that matter, to any college after what I put them through in high school.  I basically hated every job I had post-high school.  From Culligan Water to Food4Less to Williams Bros.  All if it was terrible and I knew it was going nowhere. I remember talking to Amy’s dad who was a “Nuke” in the Navy. He told me all about his great experiences and how the Navy saved his life, etc.  So I thought 1). Gets me out of my parents house 2). They pay me 3). I get to travel.  Sign me up.  Literally went down there — signed up and was very particular about the job – I wasn’t going unless I could be an Intelligence Specialist (IS).  I didn’t do this for ANY of the right reasons, but it was a critical decision in my life that help steer me in the right direction.

2. Structure / Discipline: Never would have thought I’d enjoy so much structure and discipline in my life. Boot camp, while difficult and exhausting, was not something I really struggled with.  I actually liked the idea of waking up, knowing what I was going to do that day, and the structure it represented. I watched numerous people around me fail out, quit, etc. Honestly, I’m sure my parents though I’d be home with a BCD (Big Chicken Dinner in Navy Terms or often referred to as a Bad Conduct Discharge – not something you want on your record). The entire 8 year experience taught me a lot and while I still maintain the Navy stands for “Never Again Volunteer Yourself” – I’m not sure where I’d be without it.

3. Focus:  The first four years of my military life was spent on the U.S.S. Tarawa (LHA-1).  I got to see Singapore, Australia, Okinawa, Persian Gulf, Guam, Hong Kong, and Hawaii.  Great times for a 19-year-old kid who just wanted to get away from his parents.  As my service record indicates, I was the model sailor.  Aside from a fight in Long Beach — not a blemish on this young mans record. Difficult as that is to believe.  It included lots of great accomplishments and much like a young boy scout, I was finally proud of myself for something. So proud, I decided to re-enlist and take orders to Europe.  Just happened to meet the love of life during that stage of my life and changed my orders to Hawaii so that I could be closer to her.

Hawaii was where it all came together for me scholastically. I was basically a full-time student with a part-time Navy job.  I attended school, carried a full-load, joined a couple of honor society’s and began my life as a new man.  I was getting very close to Debbie, and my life was starting to come together. I attended Chaminade University in Honolulu – a private catholic school for the kid who has no interest in Catholicism and grew up attending Assembly of God church in Orcutt, California.

I was so focused on school, it was my life. I was a pre-law studies major, wanted to be a big shot lawyer – make my dad proud. This often changes when you get married and wife gets pregnant, but I picked up a minor in computer science and that was ultimately my best decision.

Most people don’t know but I graduated Summa Cum Laude from Chaminade University – my GPA: 4.0. Never got a single B in college.  3.5 years of school and I never got less than an A-.

Probably one of my greatest accomplishments and will forever be something I’m very proud of.  I didn’t listen to everyone who said I had it “in me” but lacked “focus”. If I could go back and change it all I would, but these are the things that shape us and make us who we are today.

So here I am, again deciding what to do next.

Not based on rebellion. Not because I’m focused and determined. Not because I need some structure.

Simply because my life has led me to a point where I am able to chase my dreams and allows me to do the things I want vice have to.  Sure, I’ll get a job at some point because the boredom is killing me.  However the fundamental question is: Do I chase my dream and get my MBA?

I’ve recently applied to Washington University in St. Louis for their MBA program.  Do I need my MBA – probably not. However, it’s definitely something I want.  Not for anyone else to care, but for me personally.

I find great peace and appreciation for higher learning. Despite not caring when I was younger, it was the fork in the road for me and offered me triumph, when I so desperately needed it in my life.

I don’t like to settle. Never have – instruct others around me not to. Settling for Washington University over Harvard would be doing just that. I’ve got a dream and one day I’ll cross that off my bucket list. Much like visiting the pyramids in Egypt.

All because I was a rebellious young heathen.

 

Content Congrats

At LSI I was able to work with some great people. When a door shuts – plenty of opportunities come to the cream of the crop. It’s an opportunity for competitors in the space to “pull” some of the top talent from a closing organization and plenty of great people have found a new home.  People that helped me accomplish some of the things I have, as well as those who just made my life easier.

Geoff Stein – works very hard and one is the nicest guys you will ever meet. He’s one of those guys you can always depend on and he always volunteered to take on the extra workload.  He lands at MyFantasyLeague.com — working for Mike Hall.  Great opportunity for him to shine and be part of something great. Mike Hall runs a great fantasy sports commissioner & content service and Geoff will undoubtedly help in a multitude of ways.  Congrats Geoff!

Jason Colette – smart, smart guy who is very passionate about fantasy sports, specifically the Rays and fantasy baseball.  He lands two new freelance gigs with RotoWire and Baseball Prospectus where I’ll probably end up subscribing just to read his valuable insight.  Congrats Jason!

Patrick Daugtherty – funny kid, was a pleasure to be around. Worked hard on fantasy news and is the type of guy you want working in your stuffy corporate office. He’s always laughing and enjoying what he’s doing — never a bad moment with this guy. Patrick landed a part-time gig with RotoWorld.com.

As I mentioned yesterday, Ray Flowers, Kyle Elfrink and Kay Adams all ended up at Sirius with new gigs.  Never easy to get a radio job on a national level and these guys made it happen. Kay Adams will now host her own show on Sunday nights and the sky is the limit for this group. Well done!

Rick Hawes is on a well-deserved vacation. There is not a better NFL mind in the business and following some much needed time off, I’m sure he will find a place to call “home”. During the NFL season – Rick worked upwards of 18 hours a day and never took a day off. He’s a workhorse and special talent – he won’t have a problem finding the right opportunity.

If you aren’t doing anything this weekend and want to prepare for your upcoming fantasy baseball draft – Sirius will be covering the LABR draft in Arizona. Always a good time, some early insight to what the “experts” think about players and values — check Sirius.com for details.